Parlay Odds Formula
A parlay, accumulator (or acca), combo bet or multi is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately, since the difficulty of hitting all of them is much higher. If any of the bets in the parlay lose, the entire parlay loses. If any of the plays in the parlay ties, or 'pushes', the parlay reverts to a lower number of teams with the odds reducing accordingly.
To discover what the parlay odds for one bet is we need to convert these American odds into their decimal odds equivalent. If you are betting online then most sports betting sites can do this automatically, but the formula is very simple for favorites or underdogs. For underdogs (or plus odds) you need this formula: (plus odds + 100) / 100.
- Parlay Betting Odds Explained. Since the whole reason we are here is to explain betting odds, we need to teach people how parlay betting works and help them understand things like payouts, rules, and other things that come up when placing a parlay bet.This is one of the things we talk about first because it is such a popular way to bet on a variety of games, but many people.
- So if you’re parlaying three point spreads at -110 — -110 converted to decimal odds is 1.91 — your formula looks like: 1.91 x 1.91 x 1.91 = 6.97 6.97 – 1 = 5.97 In American odds, 6.97 is +597, meaning this parlay pays nearly 6-1.
Odds and payout[edit]
Parlay bets are paid out at odds higher than the typical single game bet, but still below the 'true' odds. For instance, a common 2-team NFL parlay based entirely on the spread generally has a payout of 2.6:1.[citation needed] In reality however, if one assumes that each single game bet is 50/50, the true payout should instead be 3:1 (10% expected value for the house). A house may average 20-30% profit on spread parlays compared to perhaps 4.5% profit on individual sports mix parlay bets.
Parlay Multiplier
Aside from 'spread' parlays, another way to parlay is to bet on two or more teams simply winning straight up. In order to calculate the payout of this parlay, one must multiply out the payout for all games. For example, if 3 teams are -385 favorites, a successful parlay on all 3 teams winning would pay out at a ratio of approximately 1/1. This is because (385/485)^3 is approximately 50%.
Examples[edit]
Typical payouts for up to 10 team parlay bet[edit]
The following is an example of a traditional Las Vegas Parlay Card at William Hill Sports Book, which shows the typical payouts for an up to 10 team parlay bet based on -1.10 prices (amount won is assuming $100 is bet)[citation needed]:
| Number | Odds | Amount won | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Team Parlay | 2.6 to 1 | $260 | $360 |
| 3 Team Parlay | 6 to 1 | $600 | $700 |
| 4 Team Parlay | 11 to 1 | $1,100 | $1,200 |
| 5 Team Parlay | 22 to 1 | $2,200 | $2,300 |
| 6 Team Parlay | 45 to 1 | $4,500 | $4,600 |
| 7 Team Parlay | 90 to 1 | $9,000 | $9,100 |
| 8 Team Parlay | 180 to 1 | $18,000 | $18,100 |
| 9 Team Parlay | 360 to 1 | $36,000 | $36,100 |
| 10 Team Parlay | 720 to 1 | $72,000 | $72,100 |
Profitability of parlays in sports betting[edit]
Many gamblers have mixed feelings as to whether or not parlays are a wise play. The best way to analyze if they are profitable in the long term is by calculating the expected value. The formula for expected value is: E[X] = x1p1 + x2p2 + x3p3…xkpk . Since the probability of all possible events will add up to 1 this can also be looked at as the weighted average of the event. The table below represents odds.[citation needed]
Column 1 = number of individual bets in the parlay
Column 2 = correct odds of winning with 50% chance of winning each individual bet
Parlay Odds Formula
Column 3 = odds payout of parlay at the sportsbook
Column 4 = correct odds of winning parlay with 55% chance of winning each individual bet
| Number of individual bets | Correct odds at 50% | Odds payout at sportsbook | Correct odds of winning parlay at 55% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| 3 | 7 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 5.0 to 1 |
| 4 | 15 to 1 | 12 to 1 | 9.9 to 1 |
| 5 | 31 to 1 | 24 to 1 | 18.9 to 1 |
| 6 | 63 to 1 | 48 to 1 | 35.1 to 1 |
| 7 | 127 to 1 | 92 to 1 | 64.7 to 1 |
| 8 | 255 to 1 | 176 to 1 | 118.4 to 1 |
| 9 | 511 to 1 | 337 to 1 | 216.1 to 1 |
| 10 | 1,023 to 1 | 645 to 1 | 393.8 to 1 |
| 11 | 2,047 to 1 | 1,233 to 1 | 716.8 to 1 |
The table illustrates that if a 55% chance of winning each individual bet were achievable, parlays would be profitable in the long term. Compare the expected value you receive on an individual bet at a typical price of -110 with a 55% chance of winning: ((100/110+1)*.55)-1 = .05 (exactly 5 cents won for every dollar bet on average), multiplied by 11 = .55, to the expected return on the 11 game parlay ((1234/717.8)-1) = .719 (72 cents won for every dollar bet on average). In this case a parlay has a much higher expected value than individual bets with greatly increased variance in outcomes.
See also[edit]
You may have heard the term “parlay” in reference to someone combining one asset with another to achieve success. “I bought a new propane grill, and combined with my shopping skills I parlayed that into a great family cookout.”
At the casino or on a sports book, to parlay means something similar. Easily the most popular of all exotic wagers in sports betting, a parlay (or “combo”) is a collection of 2 or more sides or totals that you place a wager on and all of them must win in order for you to cash in.
MLB, NFL and NBA Parlay Rules
How To Calculate Parlay Bets
Most bettors love the idea of having a chance at a big payoff from a small wager. But parlays are hard to win, and come with a strict set of rules. Let’s look at some of the ins and outs.
Bookies offer this category of wager to lure the gambler into a tough situation. For instance, on a 4-team parlay, going 3-1 is no different than going 0-4. You lose in either case. However, if you’d placed 4 individual bets and won 3 while losing 1, you would make a decent chunk of change. But you would have saved yourself a lot of money by betting the combo instead of placing 4 individual bets if you went 0-4.
“Correlated” outcomes are strictly against the rules, which means you cannot benefit from results that are related to one another. For instance, a finesse passing team might be pitted against a strong defensive unit in the Super Bowl. If you pick the latter squad, you cannot place a combo bet on the “under,” since that outcome is more likely to occur if the strong defense controls the contest.
Below is a table that lists the chances of hitting a combo if all wagers are “pick’em,” or evenly-matched “coin flip” scenarios – what sports books give you for each ratio, and the chance of a winner if you hit 55%. Obviously, if you’re a 55% handicapper, then there are good deals in the offing. This table shows the odds for 2-team combos all the way up to 11 teams.
| # of Teams | Your chances at 50% | Payout in Vegas | Your chances at 55% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 2.3/1 |
| 3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 5.0/1 |
| 4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 9.9/1 |
| 5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 18.9/1 |
| 6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.1/1 |
| 7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 64.7/1 |
| 8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 118.4/1 |
| 9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 216.1/1 |
| 10 | 1,023/1 | 700/1 | 393.8/1 |
| 11 | 2,047/1 | 1,200/1 | 716.8/1 |
As you can see, for the normal bettor who only hits on 50% of their wagers, trying for a 4-0 (or 3-0, or 2-0) record on the same day is a bad idea. It gets worse the more wagers you add. A 2-teamer isn’t terrible because you expect to hit 1 out of each 3 you bet, and you get rewarded 2.6 to 1. A 3-teamer isn’t that bad either because your expected chances are 7-1, while you get paid 6-1.
Avoiding “Sucker” Bets On Sports Book Parlays
Where you really see the biggest sucker bets are the 4-team combos. These wagers only work 1 out of every 15 times, yet you only get paid 10-1. Picking 8 winners and 0 losers only scores a hit once in every 255 times, but you only get paid 150-1 if successful. The 11-team parlay hits 1 out of every 2,047 times, and the payout is based on only just over 50% of that ratio.
Most of the general betting public doesn’t realize that 55% is an excellent winning percentage when it comes to sports betting. But the table also illustrates that if you pick 55% victorious teams/athletes, then every single combo listed is a profitable wager over the long term. The chances of hitting an 11-teamer drop from 2,047-1 to 716.8-1 when you pick 55%. Considering you get paid out 1,200-1, it actually isn’t a bad deal for the 55% handicappers.
The Lines Don’t Always Favor Betting Parlays
In conclusion, I almost never recommend betting parlays for newer cash players. There are times when I’ll put out a 2-team combo on a football game if 2 favorites are being under-valued, but only a of couple times a year. Your best move is to stick to straight bets in football and basketball with the point spreads and totals.
Sometimes, conference vs conference match-ups are a good opportunity for a successful combo wager if 1 of the 2 conferences is under-valued. For instance, ACC football went 4-0 vs the SEC on a Saturday in 2014 – nobody expected that except a few savvy gamblers. Georgia Tech over Georgia was just one of the upsets that took place on that November day as bookies lost out to the ever-popular SEC hype train driving the lines. Another opportunity for this kind of combo bet occurs during early-season conference vs conference “challenge” tourneys in college basketball.
American Odds Parlay Formula
I know it’s tempting to try and strike it rich on a big “trifecta,” but the chances are less in your favor as the number of picks goes up. So have fun, but proceed with caution!